Numerical simulation of population growth

A.A. Balyakin, V.G. Zhulego

NRC "Kurchatov institute", Russia

We propose the 2-component model of population growth when different types of dynamics are attributed to rural and urban population respectively. This approach can reduce the number of parameters usually used for describing the population growth behavior. Results of numerical simulation are presented. We stress that complex dynamics observed in the system should be avoided due to non-physical behavior. We also discuss the socio-economic aspects of the model: the ability to control population size by adjusting the flow of people from the city to the countryside. Some applications to foresight procedures based on proposed model are discussed.